It will be a giant, stretching across the mighty Mekong River.
Standing 32.6 metres tall and 820m wide, the $3.8 billion Xayaburi dam
in Laos could supply electricity to more than three quarters of a
million homes in Thailand. And when it’s completed in 2019, it will be
the most controversial power project in the region.
Since the plan was released in 2010 to construct the hydroelectric
plant, geologists and environmentalists have voiced concerns about
safety and the effects the mega-dam will have on neighbours Cambodia,
Vietnam and Thailand. They have highlighted the risks of seismic
activity in the area and the threat to the fishing industry on the
3,100-mile long (4,900 kilometres) Mekong River, which flows from the
Tibetan steppes into southern China on its way to Myanmar, Laos,
Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam.
“Previous earthquakes near the Xayaburi dam site should have served
as a warning for Laos and the Thai dam company,” said Ame Trandem, the
Southeast Asia
programme director
for the conservation group International Rivers. “It is completely
irresponsible to push forward with a project located in a seismically
unpredictable zone.”
During the past seven years, the area around the Xayaburi dam project
has been shaken by earthquakes. A 6.9 magnitude quake hit Shan state in
Myanmar. A 4.6 tremor only 48 kilometres away from the proposed project
was recorded in 2007, while a 6.3 convulsion was reported in the
Xayaburi area in the same year.
Naturally, this has alarmed Dr Punya Charusiri, who heads earthquake
studies at Chulalongkorn University’s Department of Geology. The Thai
scientist has identified an active fault close to Xayaburi town about
30km from the site. “I am worried that many people from the town would
be affected. But I am not able to predict how much damage would be done
to the dam itself, which is built on an ‘inactive fault’,” he said.
The risk factor is certainly there. During the 7.9 magnitude
earthquake in Sichaun, China in 2008, the walls of the Zipingu dam were
badly damaged and came close to unleashing a second disaster of epic
proportions.
“In a worse case scenario, if a [major] earthquake happened right
under the [Xayaburi] dam, then nobody knows,” said Dr Sampan
Singharajwaranpan, a seismologist and the dean of sciences at
Chiang Mai University.
Safety, of course, is not the only concern. Fears are growing about
the impact on the environment and ecology of the region when the
Xayaburi dam, one of nine hydropower plants planned by the Laos
government, is up and running. More than 30 million people in Cambodia
and Vietnam rely on the Mekong River for their livelihoods. Rice and
fish exports could be threatened in the inland waterways, which generate
up to $3.9bn in revenue a year, equivalent to a quarter of the world’s
annual catch.
Up to 40 species, such as the giant catfish, are under further threats from the dam, according to a report commissioned by the
World Wildlife Fund
(WWF). “Mortality is likely if fish pass through dam turbines [and] . .
. the cumulative impacts of the dam are a serious threat,” said Zeb
Hogan, an associate research professor at the
University of Nevada
in the US, and author of the report. “A fish the size of a Mekong giant
catfish will simply not be able to swim across a large barrier like a
dam to reach the spawning grounds.”

A fish trader waits for customers.
The Cambodian government is also anxious to avoid fish stocks being
damaged. This in turn could lead to dietary problems if the industry is
badly hit. “[Fish provide] 76 per cent of animal intake, 37 per cent of
protein intake, 37 per cent of iron intake and 28 per cent of fats
intake of the Cambodian population,” a study by the Cambodian Fisheries
Administration (CFA), a government body, revealed.
Nao Thuok, the director of the CFA, underlined Cambodia’s concerns
when he said the “protection of fisheries in the Mekong should be
regarded as an issue of
national security”.
The stakes are so high, a joint declaration, released in March, from 39
non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand
and Australia set a one year deadline for the Laos and Thailand
governments to scrap the project. “There is still essentially one year
left to stop the dam as construction on the Xayaburi [power project’s]
final dam across the Mekong River will begin in 2015,” said Trandem of
International Rivers.
As the clock ticks down, the pressure is building on CH. Karnchang,
the Thai group that will construct the dam, and partner Poyry Energy,
part of the Finnish-based international
engineering company
and consultants Poyry. The Thai government has also been dragged into
the dispute after agreeing to buy 95 per cent of the electricity
generated at the hydropower plant.
One major concern aired by independent geologists has been the lack
of transparency from CH. Karnchang and Poyry Energy about crucial
seismic studies. Te Navuth, the secretary general of Cambodia’s National
Mekong Committee, had called for “an
independent research team [to] assess the risk of earthquakes and dam safety” back in 2011.
Two years after construction began, the Mekong River Commission (MRC) received “[a] seismic
hazard assessment”
which was drafted by Poyry Energy and AF Consult, the Swiss company
based in Zurich. The MRC referred the “assessment” to an independent
expert, but so far the Cambodian government has yet to see the report.

Images of shattered buildings from the 6.9 magnitude earthquake that struck Tarlay in the Shan state in Myanmar in 2011.
“The seismic hazard at the Xayaburi dam site has been studied
thoroughly and the dam, the powerhouse, and the spillway will be
designed against earthquakes, according to the latest seismic design
guidelines prepared by the International Commission on Large Dams
[ICOLD],” said Dr Martin Wieland, the
managing Director of Poyry Energy.
Critics of the project have expressed disquiet about ICOLD and
claimed that it is not an independent research body, but a forum for the
dam engineering lobby largely funded by hydropower companies. Dr
Wieland, of Poyry, is also chairman of the committee on Seismic Aspects
of Dam Design for ICOLD in charge of seismic guidelines.
“The CH. Karnchang people assumed that the faults closest to the
dam-site are inactive, and so they believe it is quite safe,” said Dr
Punya, who has also worked for the CH. Karnchang group. “But there is an
active fault and it is located within a 30km radius. Construction
should never have been started before the research into the danger has
been completed.”
As the row continues, regional government heavyweights have warned of
the dangers ahead if the Xayaburi project is completed. “We have to
protect our interests,” said Lim Kean Hor, the Minister of Water
Resources and Meteorology in the Cambodian government. “We will not
allow [construction] if there will be a serious impact.”
Just like the huge scale of the Xayaburi hydropower plant, the
arguments against the project have grown from a trickle to a tidal wave.
What happens next could change the course of the Mekong River for
generations to come.